Political wonks from all over have been gearing up for a day like today to see who can figure out what the results of today's primaries will have on the midterm elections in November.

Of particular importance are three races in which two of them are Democratic Senate incumbents fighting for their political lives and the third is focused on the Tea Party candidate, Rand Paul against Republican establishment figure Trey Grayson.  Let's take a look at them one at a time.

Perhaps the most media attention of all the primary races today has been reserved for Democratic upstart Joe Sestak taking on 5 time Senator Arlen Specter.  Senator Spector famously switched parties last year from the Republicans to the Democrats with support from the White House, but retired rear admiral Joe Sestak decided to join the race and ran devastating ads against his opponent.  Arlen Specter's campaign had reportedly asked for the President to come to Pennsylvania and stump for the Senator, but the administration agreed only to cut a robocall for Specter, some say because they are trying to avoid looking like the proverbial kiss of death the President appeared to be for Martha Coakley, Jon Corzine, and Creigh Deeds.  As for this race, the final polls showed yesterday that the primary is far too close to call with Specter coming in at 42% and Sestak at 41%.

Blanche Lincoln's primary challenge is a different set of circumstances for the Democrats, considering that she is running in Arkansas and has found herself attacked form both the left and the right.  Bill Halter, the state's Lt. Governor is the Democratic primary challenger for Senator Lincoln and he has been gaining some ground as of late.  The most interesting part of this primary is that the election rules in Arkansas call for the winning candidate to get at least 50% of the vote  to avoid a runoff election next month.  As it stands, Blanche Lincoln and Bill Halter look to be heading towards a runoff.  It should be noted that Senator Lincoln has been taking heavy heat from unions because of her votes against the public option during the health-care debate, all while getting slammed from voter anger against votes for the bailout and TARP.

That brings us to Rand Paul, the son of libertarian leader Ron Paul who is a member of the House of Representatives from Texas, who shares his father's penchant for small government.  He is running to be the Republican nominee in Kentucky for the United States  Senate and has handily outdistanced Republican establishment and Mitch McConnell favourite, Kentucky Secretary of State Trey Grayson.  What most wonks find interesting in this race is that this is yet another blow against the Republican leadership coming from the Tea Party, with Rand Paul expected to win this race easily.  McConnell had to walk back his undying support of Trey Grayson with the polls clearly showing that Rand Paul will be the winner this evening, but more importantly, he can no longer claim that the popular uprising in the United States against Washington is entirely centred on the Democrats.

So what does all of this mean?  

The wonks of the world are tyring to figure out if the popular anger we've seen since the financial meltdown will continue to shape the political landscape into the next Congress.  Personally, I find any such talk of winning and losing in the November elections far too early to tell, at least until the stage is set so that we can see how the various final candidates do when matched up against their ultimate opponent.  As for the primary races, we might see the end of some distinguished careers tonight, but then again we also may see an ebbing of the undirected anger we've experienced all year into something more directed and understandable.

I'll be back later tonight for an update on how the primaries going.

UPDATE:  It was just announced that they are calling Rand Paul the winner in Kentucky over Trey Grayson, the hand picked candidate by Senate GOP leader Mitch McConnell.  With 32% of the polls reporting, Rand Paul had 59% of the vote to Grayson's 37%.  Paul winning the primary will certainly cause trouble for Republican leadership in the Senate, proving that the anger in America is not directly solely at the Democrats.

UPDATE #2:  The cable news folks are calling the Republican primary in Pennsylvania for Pat Toomey, even though this race was foretold to turn out this way a long time ago.  Toomey will be running for a Senate seat against either new Democrat and incumbent Arlen Specter, or Specter's opponent Joe Sestak.

UPDATE #3:  The Democrat primary in Kentucky for the Senate has been called with Kentucky AG Jack Conway defeating Kentucky Lt. Governor Dan Mongiardo by a slim margin, 44% to 43% of the vote.  Mr. Conway will now face Rand Paul in the general election in November.

UPDATE #4:  The intertubes and cable folks have declared Joe Sestak the winner over incumbent Arlen Specter.  A pretty big deal considering he was the Democratic establishment's choice, but not surprising after a long hard fought campaign by Sestak and the fact that Specter switched parties during a time when voters don't trust politicians as it is.  That and the great commercials team Sestak were able to put together using Specter's own words about switching political parties in order to get re-elected.  He even sounded maniacal in a cartoony way so it was devastating and hilarious all at the same time.  In any event, it should be interesting to see if he decides to run as an independent in November or if he retires and gives his support to Sestak.  (Edit: I've since learned that apparently there was a tweet sent out from Specter saying that he would indeed be offering his support to Sestak in November)  

UPDATE #5:  For the only special election of the night (as opposed to primary) and quite possibly one of the best signs for Democrats who were worried of losing the House to the GOP, Democrat Mark Critz defeated Republican Tim Burns for John Murtha's old Pennsylvania seat in the House.  Had Critz lost, many believed it was a sign that the Democrats were in for a severe beating in the midterm elections, but this win has given Democratic hopefuls that they may survive with the House in tact.

UPDATE #6:  The Democratic three way race in Arkansas is being called (sort of), where incumbent Blanche Lincoln is running against challenger Bill Halter, with a third long shot candidate syphoning enough votes away from the other two to force a runoff vote.  As I mentioned earlier in this piece, the rules for the primary there call for the winner to get at least 50% of the vote and because Lincoln is at 44% and Halter is at 42% there will indeed be a runoff in three weeks between the two.