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Opinion

Unrest In Iran: In Memory Of Neda

This past June when Iranian protests began in earnest, I was on twitter retweeting messages form Iranian dissidents trying in any way I could to help them topple the Iranian government.  As a budding talking head and an aspiring journalist I shouldn't admit that I took an active role as opposed to merely observing, but all you need to do is look at Fugumble's twitter history to see what I did so there's no point in my denying it. 

One image that I will never forget is the death of the Iranian woman Neda who was brutally murdered while she stood with her father on the sidewalk by a Basiji thug and it was all caught on camera.  I watched the video and instantly regretted it, but as a symbol, the death of Neda is a powerful one, although I'm sure her family would much rather have her back. 

It was Neda that I thought of when I read about the new protests stemming from unrest revolving around the death of the reformist cleric Montazeri.  Montazeri was famous for his role in the fall of the Shah and helping form the Islamic revolution in Iran, but later in life he became an outspoken critic of the government along with other prominent figures like Mousavi who saw his nephew killed by government forces over the weekend, sparking further protests and government crackdowns.

Iranian officials have said that 8 people were killed by government paid thugs and security forces over the weekend and early Twitter chatter indicates that it is not business as usual in Iran this Monday morning.  While there is increased pressure on the government headed by Ahmadinejad, it doesn't seem to be enough for the government to change their current trajectory.

What does this mean for how the international community treats with Iran on the Nuclear issue?  Not much.  While it is encouraging and telling to see a huge number of youth and middle class opposed to what is widely considered (inside their country) an illegitimate representative of their country, they have no real leverage without the army joining them.  What this does for international negotiators is less clear and while I'd like to think that no one in their right mind would consider a preemptive strike against Iranian nuclear facilities before diplomatic avenues are exhausted, the possibility of such an action rallying sympathies inside Iran around Ahmadinejad loom large.

I'm not sure what a foreigner like myself can do to help those who want change, but the death of Neda made me feel connected to a group of people and a movement in a way I've never experienced before.  It's a large part of why I started this website and is definitely one of the top stories of 2009 and is something we will be returning to in the year to come..


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2 Comments | Leave a comment

Great post Aaron, I've been following this closely too. My snap immpression is that the regime is in trouble.....the opposition has gotten a lot smarter in when and how they demonstrate. They are picking their battles now....

Thanks Bob.

We'll have to see what will happen over the next few weeks, but unless there are significant changes to loyalty among the leadership in the army it could be a long time before any significant changes occur in Iran. As it stands the situation is a complicated mix, the clerical leadership is in a struggle with Ahmadinejad and his supporters in the Revolutionary Guard, and both of those groups are under pressure from the protesters. Those who are hoping for a quick change in Iran may be disappointed.

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