There has been a lot of press surrounding the upcoming elections in Virginia, New Jersey, and probably most talked about the race in New York-23.  The Virginia gubernatorial race between Creigh Deeds (D) and Bob McDonnell (R) seems to be a done deal with the Republican candidate holding a large lead over Deeds according to a Rasmussen poll on October 28.  Whether or not this particular race is a harbinger of the 2010 elections, it's clear that the Republicans will call a victory a clear message to both Senate and House Democrats that the American people don't support their agenda as well as a defeat of the Presidents policies.  Similarly, the Democrats have been walking back any expectations for a victory in Virginia trying to downplay any foretelling of future elections with a loss of one of their governor seats.

Saying that, historically speaking the party in power always loses some seats during the midterms and there's no reason to think that this upcoming midterm will be any different.  As we all know, the spin will be out in full force no matter who wins these three elections but questions are swirling around whether or not Jon Corzine will be able to sneak through with a victory in the New Jersey Governor's race despite having terrible unfavorable numbers.  Right now the race is a a statistical dead heat but at one point the Republican challenger Chris Christie held a relatively large lead that has disappeared over the last few weeks.  I think that if the Democrats lose this race, especially with Obama putting some of his attention into this race, the pundits can make a much better argument for popular displeasure with the ruling Democrats.

The final race, and what has been the most interesting because it has publicly demonstrated what is being called the GOP civil war, is NY-23 that until yesterday had three candidates to fill an empty spot vacated by Republican Rep. John McHugh who resigned last month to become President Barack Obama's secretary of the Army.  Before Dede Scozzafava (R) dropped out of the race and put her support behind Democrat Bill Owens they were joined by a third candidate from the Conservative Party Doug Hoffman.  Mr. Hoffman is not from the area and has been endorsed by several high profile right wing figures like Sarah Palin and Dick Army.  At the moment Owens and Hoffman are statistically tied in the race but in a district that has been reliably Republican for a very long time the real story is the break down of the Republican machine and the take over of local politics by national interests.  Is this further evidence that the Republicans have lost control over their own party?